Investment Cost Control.
It is your money, we respect this....
Since the last time I wrote, we have had some great progress with the business, but this does nothing for you personally unless we are helping you sort through the maze of capital markets and wealth planning. As an update, we will be hosting a webinar that covers our research, some history of bubbles dating back to the 1600's and why we are seeing so many bubbles in the past decade or two, and the effects going forward. Email me to get a copy of the research or on the webinar list: email@example.com. Now let me move on.
I last wrote about Natural Gas and offered an opinion. It did rise, and subsequently fell. I still believe we will see higher prices and I am in the midst of drafting our 2010 Q1 report.
Let's get to the point. We have a lot of capital (cash) in the system and this action normally sets off inflation, but the Fed may be able to contain it since consumers are still feeling the brunt of this recession. Usually it takes about 6-10 months until the public feels some relief after a recession with the market reaction being ahead of that - 6-10 months ahead because the market is looking forward. Because of the depths of this particular recession, it may take longer. So if we started to 'stop the bleeding' back in May 09', sometime around this summer to late 2010 consumers should see some more relief. I am seeing the effects, but also see some cracks in the concrete that need to be filled. Like many other market pundits, we believe energy and certain commodities will outperform. I can't give too much away, it would take away from my report.
Technically speaking, we are looking for some sort of pull back and more volatility in the coming months. After that, we think the effects of the second stimulus just announced by the administration, even though they didn't call it that, will take effect and we will be on the way to a recovery felt by all. I believe the Government and the Fed have laid the ground work to form a nice base that could allow the US to still remain dominant (with China as a new player with power). Please do not get confused with my thoughts here - I think that the entire landscape has changed. Consumers from this point on will be a bit more frugile and mindful of how much they are saving. I am already seeing this from some new prospects I am speaking with. They want to increase their savings rate to make sure they don't get "caught out there' again. This is a good thing for the US - it will breed more stability in the system.
So with this - our position is simple: stay nimble, listen to the market and try to control volatility (or ask us for help, had to give us a plug here). It is all about maintaing your capital position and not getting caught up with knowing the market. To all those out of work, or just not happy with their position, stay focused and make the best of it - lemons make lemonade. This is no time to whine, this is time to make it happen, kick it up a notch. Hopefully you will be well rewarded if you plan appropriately for the future.